* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/10/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 46 43 41 37 35 33 33 37 42 50 52 54 56 57 58 V (KT) LAND 50 48 46 43 41 37 35 33 33 37 42 50 52 54 56 57 58 V (KT) LGEM 50 49 47 44 42 37 35 32 32 33 36 41 47 52 59 65 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 32 36 36 37 37 31 29 24 24 20 18 16 14 7 18 24 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 0 2 1 0 5 1 1 -2 -1 -2 -1 0 0 1 9 SHEAR DIR 234 233 227 223 221 221 208 209 194 191 182 122 142 144 227 239 238 SST (C) 27.1 27.3 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.6 28.9 29.2 29.3 29.4 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 125 128 131 134 135 137 144 150 155 158 159 148 145 141 138 134 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 118 120 122 122 123 129 135 140 142 141 128 121 118 115 111 108 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.8 1.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 9 10 8 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 59 56 54 56 53 54 55 53 49 45 40 41 44 47 46 54 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 20 18 18 16 17 16 15 16 18 21 22 23 25 28 30 850 MB ENV VOR 112 103 91 101 99 90 97 87 70 54 37 20 6 43 27 31 48 200 MB DIV 31 8 0 29 1 11 13 0 22 -1 -1 20 12 37 27 72 60 700-850 TADV 5 5 10 7 3 2 6 6 8 13 10 4 -1 -6 0 -3 4 LAND (KM) 1795 1744 1694 1617 1518 1377 1282 1215 1239 1236 1222 1292 1145 1135 1128 1103 1117 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.0 21.4 21.5 21.6 22.0 22.9 24.0 25.9 27.5 28.7 29.9 31.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.6 48.6 49.6 50.6 51.6 53.1 54.4 55.7 56.9 58.9 61.5 63.5 64.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 10 11 12 12 9 7 8 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 15 19 28 38 39 32 28 32 30 24 23 25 27 13 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. -21. -20. -19. -17. -17. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -13. -12. -11. -8. -7. -6. -3. -1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -9. -13. -15. -17. -17. -13. -8. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 20.6 47.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/10/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 278.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.65 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.37 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/10/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/10/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 48 46 43 41 37 35 33 33 37 42 50 52 54 56 57 58 18HR AGO 50 49 47 44 42 38 36 34 34 38 43 51 53 55 57 58 59 12HR AGO 50 47 46 43 41 37 35 33 33 37 42 50 52 54 56 57 58 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 38 34 32 30 30 34 39 47 49 51 53 54 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT