* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/09/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 46 43 41 36 35 33 33 35 40 48 54 55 57 58 58 V (KT) LAND 50 48 46 43 41 36 35 33 33 35 40 48 54 55 57 58 58 V (KT) LGEM 50 49 47 45 42 38 35 33 31 32 34 39 47 54 61 66 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 35 37 36 35 34 25 27 22 19 16 10 16 6 11 21 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 0 0 1 1 4 2 1 1 -2 -5 -2 -3 0 2 9 SHEAR DIR 228 234 234 228 223 230 212 215 193 204 188 190 138 141 176 238 261 SST (C) 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.6 27.7 28.1 28.2 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.5 29.1 28.7 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 124 126 127 131 132 137 138 146 152 158 161 153 146 139 139 135 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 116 116 119 120 124 124 132 138 142 142 133 123 116 116 113 112 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 60 58 56 54 54 55 56 56 53 49 46 44 47 50 53 51 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 20 19 19 17 17 17 16 16 17 19 22 23 25 27 28 850 MB ENV VOR 104 108 102 94 95 93 100 95 84 66 49 27 11 29 49 23 10 200 MB DIV 46 30 -2 -2 21 -14 48 5 22 10 3 23 17 28 40 29 62 700-850 TADV 14 7 3 4 8 0 5 5 5 11 14 6 -1 -8 -9 5 11 LAND (KM) 1795 1771 1705 1649 1595 1440 1328 1252 1198 1190 1250 1326 1292 1187 1111 1067 1106 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.6 20.8 21.0 21.1 21.3 22.0 23.1 24.6 26.3 28.2 29.7 30.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.9 47.9 48.9 49.8 50.6 52.3 53.6 54.8 56.3 58.0 59.8 61.5 63.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 8 8 7 7 9 11 12 11 10 8 7 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 10 13 18 38 39 39 30 31 33 24 25 20 34 13 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 14. 14. 13. 12. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -10. -12. -16. -18. -20. -20. -18. -17. -15. -14. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -3. -6. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -11. -8. -7. -4. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -7. -9. -14. -15. -17. -17. -15. -10. -2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 20.3 46.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/09/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.19 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 263.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.66 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.7% 1.0% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 2.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/09/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/09/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 48 46 43 41 36 35 33 33 35 40 48 54 55 57 58 58 18HR AGO 50 49 47 44 42 37 36 34 34 36 41 49 55 56 58 59 59 12HR AGO 50 47 46 43 41 36 35 33 33 35 40 48 54 55 57 58 58 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 38 33 32 30 30 32 37 45 51 52 54 55 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT