* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/09/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 47 43 41 37 33 32 30 29 32 35 37 34 31 32 32 V (KT) LAND 50 49 47 43 41 37 33 32 30 29 32 35 37 34 31 32 32 V (KT) LGEM 50 49 47 45 43 39 35 33 31 29 30 31 34 36 38 38 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 25 32 36 35 36 29 26 24 25 16 18 20 28 28 22 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 5 1 1 4 0 7 1 2 0 3 0 4 -2 2 2 SHEAR DIR 230 226 233 231 228 225 224 213 208 196 188 161 133 143 146 195 233 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.6 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.9 29.2 29.3 29.6 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.3 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 126 127 131 134 138 143 150 155 157 162 149 144 141 141 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 116 116 117 119 121 124 130 136 140 139 141 128 121 117 118 114 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 8 7 5 700-500 MB RH 60 59 57 55 52 54 55 55 54 48 45 43 44 47 51 46 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 22 21 20 18 18 17 18 16 14 14 13 13 12 11 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 106 108 111 101 99 100 98 103 94 65 54 33 13 5 31 10 -17 200 MB DIV 57 64 28 -7 -6 6 17 26 1 16 3 2 16 24 32 30 27 700-850 TADV 15 9 5 2 2 0 1 6 5 8 7 7 8 1 -3 2 11 LAND (KM) 1773 1766 1751 1679 1610 1506 1364 1259 1206 1171 1174 1221 1313 1265 1148 1073 987 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.1 20.5 20.7 20.8 21.0 21.5 22.3 24.0 25.6 27.0 28.4 29.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.1 47.1 48.1 49.1 50.1 51.6 53.1 54.4 55.8 57.5 59.2 60.8 62.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 9 8 7 7 9 11 11 10 10 8 7 6 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 9 10 14 26 43 43 32 29 34 36 24 24 22 36 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -12. -15. -17. -19. -20. -19. -18. -20. -21. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -10. -11. -14. -18. -20. -22. -23. -23. -24. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -7. -9. -13. -17. -18. -20. -21. -18. -15. -13. -16. -19. -18. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.7 46.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/09/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.32 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.13 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 270.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.66 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 1.0% 1.2% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 2.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/09/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/09/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 49 47 43 41 37 33 32 30 29 32 35 37 34 31 32 32 18HR AGO 50 49 47 43 41 37 33 32 30 29 32 35 37 34 31 32 32 12HR AGO 50 47 46 42 40 36 32 31 29 28 31 34 36 33 30 31 31 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 38 34 30 29 27 26 29 32 34 31 28 29 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT