* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/09/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 47 46 43 41 38 38 36 36 37 40 41 40 39 39 41 V (KT) LAND 50 50 47 46 43 41 38 38 36 36 37 40 41 40 39 39 41 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 48 47 45 42 39 37 35 34 34 36 39 42 44 46 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 20 25 31 32 29 28 19 22 19 16 14 11 25 19 19 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 6 2 0 1 2 5 5 3 6 5 4 2 2 3 0 SHEAR DIR 227 220 218 228 227 218 225 205 195 184 202 160 160 139 158 162 226 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.5 28.9 29.5 29.7 29.4 28.9 28.6 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 126 125 126 130 132 134 135 136 135 143 150 161 164 157 148 144 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 116 116 120 121 122 122 122 121 128 135 145 144 133 124 120 117 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 63 60 62 58 56 52 54 55 54 54 53 50 47 46 44 44 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 21 21 19 19 19 19 18 17 16 15 14 14 14 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 102 108 110 106 100 96 96 108 100 91 77 58 38 20 13 22 -3 200 MB DIV 69 63 72 30 -4 35 16 46 6 21 26 39 26 25 18 36 3 700-850 TADV 5 13 8 3 1 4 3 6 4 5 12 8 12 -1 -5 -4 3 LAND (KM) 1756 1736 1716 1694 1643 1526 1424 1334 1278 1233 1219 1197 1207 1265 1350 1354 1202 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.4 19.6 19.8 20.0 20.4 20.5 21.1 22.0 23.3 24.8 26.3 27.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.2 46.2 47.1 48.1 49.0 50.8 52.3 53.3 54.1 55.1 56.2 57.9 59.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 6 6 7 8 10 11 10 7 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 7 10 13 19 34 42 33 31 31 33 37 29 24 26 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -13. -12. -12. -13. -14. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. -18. -19. -20. -19. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -12. -14. -14. -13. -10. -9. -10. -11. -11. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.1 45.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/09/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.16 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.13 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.10 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 237.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.69 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.36 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 7.3% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.7% 0.9% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 2.8% 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% 2.3% 0.3% 0.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/09/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/09/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 50 47 46 43 41 38 38 36 36 37 40 41 40 39 39 41 18HR AGO 50 49 46 45 42 40 37 37 35 35 36 39 40 39 38 38 40 12HR AGO 50 47 46 45 42 40 37 37 35 35 36 39 40 39 38 38 40 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 37 35 32 32 30 30 31 34 35 34 33 33 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT