* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/09/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 48 46 44 39 34 33 33 31 30 31 31 31 31 33 36 V (KT) LAND 50 49 48 46 44 39 34 33 33 31 30 31 31 31 31 33 36 V (KT) LGEM 50 48 47 45 43 39 36 32 30 28 27 26 26 27 29 32 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 23 24 25 32 38 37 30 27 25 27 19 25 20 26 20 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 6 5 -2 2 2 7 1 5 3 1 0 3 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 225 232 225 218 222 222 219 220 199 202 190 182 171 150 177 174 201 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.3 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.0 27.9 28.3 28.8 29.4 29.7 29.6 29.1 28.8 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 126 125 125 127 131 133 134 135 134 140 148 159 164 161 152 148 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 115 115 117 119 121 121 121 119 126 133 144 145 137 128 127 125 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 10 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 64 61 61 59 59 54 55 56 53 51 49 48 42 41 42 42 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 23 23 21 18 17 18 19 18 16 14 13 12 12 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR 112 105 106 104 107 98 101 108 103 97 84 61 45 22 20 28 57 200 MB DIV 84 69 51 68 31 -6 9 33 20 2 31 17 21 11 18 50 17 700-850 TADV 6 9 10 3 0 4 -1 2 1 4 7 9 8 12 6 2 0 LAND (KM) 1783 1781 1783 1763 1747 1634 1527 1407 1341 1271 1203 1157 1194 1210 1223 1300 1117 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.4 19.8 20.1 20.3 20.7 20.8 21.2 22.1 23.1 24.4 25.8 27.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.5 45.3 46.1 47.1 48.0 49.7 51.2 52.6 53.5 54.6 56.1 57.9 59.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 8 10 11 10 7 6 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 8 8 11 15 22 42 33 31 31 31 38 35 25 24 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -15. -17. -20. -22. -22. -21. -21. -22. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -12. -16. -18. -21. -21. -21. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -16. -17. -17. -19. -20. -19. -19. -19. -19. -17. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.0 44.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/09/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.19 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.16 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 228.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.35 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.42 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 8.8% 6.6% 6.0% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 3.5% 2.4% 2.2% 1.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/09/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/09/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 49 48 46 44 39 34 33 33 31 30 31 31 31 31 33 36 18HR AGO 50 49 48 46 44 39 34 33 33 31 30 31 31 31 31 33 36 12HR AGO 50 47 46 44 42 37 32 31 31 29 28 29 29 29 29 31 34 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 38 33 28 27 27 25 24 25 25 25 25 27 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT