* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/08/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 56 55 54 47 42 36 35 32 31 32 34 33 34 36 36 V (KT) LAND 55 56 56 55 54 47 42 36 35 32 31 32 34 33 34 36 36 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 59 59 58 53 47 42 37 35 33 33 33 34 35 36 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 19 23 21 23 35 34 30 26 26 26 25 25 22 24 19 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -1 1 6 2 0 4 2 5 2 0 0 -1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 219 225 234 228 220 225 222 223 214 218 201 212 185 195 176 202 198 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.3 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.3 28.8 29.2 29.6 29.8 29.5 29.1 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 125 125 127 134 134 135 136 140 148 155 162 164 158 152 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 116 115 115 117 123 121 122 123 126 134 140 142 141 133 130 121 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 63 62 60 60 59 53 52 54 54 50 49 45 39 37 37 38 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 22 22 22 22 19 18 16 16 15 14 13 13 10 9 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 116 120 109 115 111 94 98 92 104 98 89 69 56 39 18 7 14 200 MB DIV 84 80 58 50 74 0 -2 8 38 0 11 14 32 2 18 2 -12 700-850 TADV 4 6 9 10 8 1 2 -1 6 2 7 10 12 8 8 4 0 LAND (KM) 1764 1772 1786 1769 1752 1652 1534 1430 1296 1199 1119 1089 1126 1153 1166 1230 1222 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.0 19.5 19.8 20.0 20.5 20.6 20.8 21.6 22.5 23.7 25.1 26.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.0 44.7 45.4 46.3 47.2 49.3 50.9 52.3 53.8 55.1 56.6 58.1 59.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 9 7 7 8 8 9 10 9 7 5 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 9 8 8 14 20 36 36 32 32 31 41 44 35 25 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -15. -17. -18. -18. -18. -18. -18. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -14. -17. -20. -22. -22. -24. -25. -25. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -1. -8. -13. -19. -20. -23. -24. -23. -21. -22. -21. -19. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.5 44.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/08/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.35 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.21 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 246.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.29 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.46 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 15.4% 11.2% 9.4% 7.5% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 4.0% 1.4% 1.0% 0.5% 1.7% 1.3% 1.5% Bayesian: 2.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 6.6% 4.2% 3.5% 2.7% 3.8% 0.5% 0.5% DTOPS: 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/08/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/08/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 56 56 55 54 47 42 36 35 32 31 32 34 33 34 36 36 18HR AGO 55 54 54 53 52 45 40 34 33 30 29 30 32 31 32 34 34 12HR AGO 55 52 51 50 49 42 37 31 30 27 26 27 29 28 29 31 31 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 44 37 32 26 25 22 21 22 24 23 24 26 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT