* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/08/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 59 60 58 54 47 41 38 34 31 31 34 35 37 39 39 V (KT) LAND 55 58 59 60 58 54 47 41 38 34 31 31 34 35 37 39 39 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 62 63 62 57 51 45 40 36 33 32 32 33 35 37 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 21 23 20 31 36 35 32 31 26 31 19 23 13 19 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -2 -3 2 3 -2 0 0 1 0 -4 -5 -6 -7 -7 -7 SHEAR DIR 222 217 222 232 228 225 220 225 230 223 214 200 198 191 183 185 176 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.6 29.0 29.4 29.7 29.7 28.9 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 123 124 124 125 125 131 133 134 136 137 145 151 158 163 163 150 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 113 114 115 115 121 121 121 123 123 131 136 140 142 141 129 120 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 62 64 64 62 60 58 55 57 56 53 51 46 43 41 40 38 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 20 21 20 18 15 14 13 13 11 10 10 9 8 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 110 118 122 108 110 100 92 95 101 104 81 60 30 20 1 -21 -24 200 MB DIV 65 92 74 58 44 31 -16 -5 21 -6 -9 18 -2 -2 -10 -4 6 700-850 TADV 1 4 3 8 9 -1 0 -1 0 -1 5 3 4 0 6 0 1 LAND (KM) 1798 1797 1800 1800 1807 1762 1627 1551 1407 1282 1201 1147 1134 1160 1204 1284 1211 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.6 19.0 19.5 19.9 20.4 20.6 21.0 21.6 22.4 23.4 24.7 26.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 43.0 43.6 44.2 45.0 45.8 47.9 49.7 51.1 52.7 54.2 55.5 57.0 58.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 9 9 8 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 6 7 8 9 9 11 14 22 41 31 32 29 36 40 37 24 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -16. -19. -20. -21. -20. -20. -19. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -7. -10. -12. -14. -17. -20. -20. -21. -22. -23. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 5. 3. -1. -8. -14. -17. -21. -24. -24. -21. -20. -18. -16. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.2 43.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/08/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 6.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.37 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.30 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 229.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.28 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.45 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 18.5% 13.4% 11.1% 9.0% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 9.9% 4.0% 2.1% 1.0% 3.7% 2.2% 2.5% Bayesian: 6.6% 1.8% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.8% 10.1% 5.9% 4.5% 3.4% 5.0% 0.7% 0.8% DTOPS: 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/08/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/08/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 58 59 60 58 54 47 41 38 34 31 31 34 35 37 39 39 18HR AGO 55 54 55 56 54 50 43 37 34 30 27 27 30 31 33 35 35 12HR AGO 55 52 51 52 50 46 39 33 30 26 23 23 26 27 29 31 31 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 43 39 32 26 23 19 16 16 19 20 22 24 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT