* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/08/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 51 52 51 46 41 36 32 30 31 33 35 37 40 40 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 51 52 51 46 41 36 32 30 31 33 35 37 40 40 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 51 53 53 51 46 41 37 33 31 30 30 32 33 35 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 16 22 23 23 33 33 33 27 28 25 21 22 15 18 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 -2 -2 4 2 1 3 2 3 0 1 0 0 0 -7 SHEAR DIR 235 228 222 227 232 225 226 225 235 225 220 187 197 166 169 145 164 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.3 28.0 28.1 28.8 29.1 29.6 29.6 29.8 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 124 124 123 125 124 124 125 127 136 137 148 153 162 161 165 154 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 112 112 115 114 114 115 116 123 123 133 138 145 140 143 135 136 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 62 62 65 63 62 59 55 55 58 58 54 51 45 42 42 42 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 21 20 22 20 17 16 14 13 12 13 13 13 12 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 103 107 111 115 103 105 86 94 90 92 76 71 40 26 16 0 -4 200 MB DIV 44 66 76 62 42 59 4 3 -1 27 -8 19 7 13 15 5 0 700-850 TADV 2 2 4 4 6 10 0 3 -1 1 1 5 4 7 10 7 5 LAND (KM) 1798 1812 1827 1814 1805 1785 1698 1565 1404 1262 1150 1083 1087 1127 1158 1219 1124 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.4 18.8 19.2 19.5 20.2 20.7 21.0 21.5 22.1 22.9 24.1 25.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.6 43.0 43.4 44.2 45.0 46.9 48.9 50.9 52.7 54.3 55.8 57.3 58.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 9 8 8 9 10 10 8 8 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 7 8 9 7 8 16 41 33 34 31 39 42 42 25 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -8. -12. -15. -18. -19. -19. -19. -19. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 6. 7. 6. 1. -4. -9. -13. -15. -14. -12. -10. -8. -5. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.9 42.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/08/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.41 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 184.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.36 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.41 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 17.5% 12.7% 10.2% 8.2% 10.6% 9.8% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 13.4% 5.8% 2.7% 1.4% 5.8% 2.8% 4.4% Bayesian: 3.3% 1.8% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 10.9% 6.3% 4.4% 3.2% 5.5% 4.2% 1.5% DTOPS: 5.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/08/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/08/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 51 51 52 51 46 41 36 32 30 31 33 35 37 40 40 18HR AGO 45 44 47 47 48 47 42 37 32 28 26 27 29 31 33 36 36 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 42 41 36 31 26 22 20 21 23 25 27 30 30 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 35 30 25 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT