* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/08/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 46 48 48 47 43 39 35 36 41 47 51 56 63 66 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 46 48 48 47 43 39 35 36 41 47 51 56 63 66 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 45 47 48 48 45 41 36 33 31 32 34 39 46 55 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 13 15 16 20 20 28 34 33 27 24 16 15 4 10 17 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 -2 0 3 0 2 2 3 0 0 1 0 -7 -5 SHEAR DIR 204 238 236 225 226 225 218 221 227 231 221 207 196 210 232 315 325 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.4 28.1 28.1 28.9 29.2 29.6 29.5 29.7 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 124 123 123 123 123 125 125 125 128 137 137 150 155 161 159 164 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 112 112 112 113 114 115 114 116 123 123 135 138 141 138 143 132 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 63 60 61 63 62 59 58 55 57 59 58 57 53 51 47 44 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 20 20 19 18 14 14 12 13 16 19 20 23 27 29 850 MB ENV VOR 109 99 100 117 118 103 93 86 87 84 79 73 62 37 27 14 -11 200 MB DIV 34 42 59 70 59 34 20 9 3 20 8 10 36 5 16 20 13 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 4 4 7 0 0 -1 2 4 7 3 3 2 2 3 LAND (KM) 1786 1804 1825 1825 1828 1827 1798 1664 1522 1366 1255 1169 1152 1147 1165 1211 1338 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.3 20.1 20.7 21.1 21.3 21.6 22.2 23.3 24.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.4 42.7 43.0 43.6 44.2 45.8 47.7 49.7 51.5 53.1 54.4 55.8 57.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 9 8 7 7 9 9 8 7 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 6 7 9 9 7 10 23 40 33 35 30 35 37 38 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -4. -8. -12. -14. -15. -14. -13. -12. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -5. -7. -10. -10. -6. -3. -2. 0. 4. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 3. -1. -5. -4. 1. 7. 11. 16. 23. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.6 42.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/08/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.56 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.30 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 170.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.40 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 14.8% 11.0% 8.9% 7.1% 9.6% 8.9% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 9.9% 4.3% 1.9% 0.9% 4.9% 3.8% 3.7% Bayesian: 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 3.1% 8.4% 5.1% 3.6% 2.7% 4.9% 4.3% 1.2% DTOPS: 3.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/08/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/08/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 44 46 48 48 47 43 39 35 36 41 47 51 56 63 66 18HR AGO 40 39 41 43 45 45 44 40 36 32 33 38 44 48 53 60 63 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 40 40 39 35 31 27 28 33 39 43 48 55 58 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 32 31 27 23 19 20 25 31 35 40 47 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT