* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/07/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 47 51 51 49 45 40 38 37 42 46 50 57 63 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 47 51 51 49 45 40 38 37 42 46 50 57 63 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 44 46 49 47 44 40 36 33 32 34 37 42 49 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 11 12 12 18 22 28 30 26 17 21 18 12 13 8 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 1 1 0 -1 2 4 1 5 5 5 2 4 2 3 -2 SHEAR DIR 163 195 241 237 217 233 212 217 227 230 218 220 189 171 119 100 111 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.7 28.2 28.6 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 124 124 124 125 125 125 124 125 125 132 139 145 153 156 159 163 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 111 112 114 115 115 115 114 112 120 127 133 137 134 138 148 155 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -52.7 -53.2 -53.1 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 62 62 63 63 63 60 57 54 55 58 58 57 53 50 45 44 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 19 20 21 19 17 15 13 13 13 14 17 18 21 24 850 MB ENV VOR 99 108 95 103 115 108 97 78 89 86 91 77 79 71 65 45 33 200 MB DIV 37 34 34 49 67 33 24 10 12 6 29 -12 20 14 37 20 21 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 5 5 4 -5 2 -1 2 3 5 4 3 6 4 LAND (KM) 1767 1770 1774 1764 1758 1781 1771 1666 1572 1463 1278 1133 1079 1045 1000 971 1051 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.5 17.7 18.0 18.3 19.3 20.1 20.7 20.8 20.9 21.3 22.3 23.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.3 42.5 42.7 43.2 43.8 45.1 47.0 49.3 50.6 52.0 53.9 55.7 57.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 6 7 9 10 9 7 8 9 10 8 4 6 12 16 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 6 7 8 8 6 8 13 30 38 35 32 32 37 48 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 19. 20. 22. 23. 24. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. -10. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. -2. -6. -9. -10. -12. -9. -7. -6. -3. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 16. 16. 14. 10. 5. 3. 2. 7. 11. 15. 22. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.3 42.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/07/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.76 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.28 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.45 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 16.4% 12.2% 9.9% 8.1% 10.3% 9.8% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 14.8% 8.1% 4.2% 1.4% 6.8% 5.7% 6.8% Bayesian: 2.8% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 3.9% 10.8% 6.9% 4.7% 3.2% 5.8% 5.2% 2.3% DTOPS: 2.0% 9.0% 5.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/07/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/07/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 41 44 47 51 51 49 45 40 38 37 42 46 50 57 63 18HR AGO 35 34 37 40 43 47 47 45 41 36 34 33 38 42 46 53 59 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 37 41 41 39 35 30 28 27 32 36 40 47 53 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 32 32 30 26 21 19 18 23 27 31 38 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT