* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/07/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 43 45 49 52 53 48 45 42 40 39 37 38 41 42 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 43 45 49 52 53 48 45 42 40 39 37 38 41 42 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 43 45 49 50 48 44 39 36 34 32 32 32 33 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 6 11 12 17 15 25 28 25 24 23 21 23 17 22 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 0 -1 0 -1 2 3 1 1 2 3 4 3 4 3 3 SHEAR DIR 183 187 205 245 245 227 219 222 220 230 242 224 221 202 215 208 214 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.5 28.2 28.3 28.8 28.9 29.4 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 125 125 126 125 125 125 124 129 138 140 148 149 157 159 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 113 112 112 114 115 114 115 114 117 125 127 134 134 139 138 138 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 61 61 62 62 64 62 60 59 56 56 57 57 57 54 49 47 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 17 18 19 19 18 15 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 100 102 106 93 99 116 104 97 93 91 90 85 67 54 20 0 -18 200 MB DIV 32 37 33 33 41 56 36 13 -9 -4 14 -2 0 18 -7 6 0 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 4 6 2 -2 -1 0 0 2 4 2 7 3 LAND (KM) 1765 1753 1741 1739 1737 1725 1719 1695 1567 1444 1333 1200 1083 1023 1015 1022 1037 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.3 17.4 17.6 17.8 18.5 19.2 19.7 20.1 20.3 20.5 21.0 22.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.1 42.4 42.8 43.1 43.4 44.7 46.2 47.8 50.0 51.8 53.2 54.6 56.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 3 5 7 8 9 10 8 7 8 8 8 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 6 7 7 7 8 9 7 7 8 23 44 40 35 31 31 44 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 14. 17. 18. 13. 10. 7. 5. 4. 2. 3. 6. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.1 42.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/07/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.80 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.45 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 15.6% 11.8% 9.7% 7.9% 10.4% 10.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 16.6% 8.3% 4.2% 1.9% 10.4% 7.7% 11.9% Bayesian: 2.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% Consensus: 3.4% 11.0% 6.7% 4.6% 3.2% 7.0% 6.1% 4.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/07/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/07/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 40 43 45 49 52 53 48 45 42 40 39 37 38 41 42 18HR AGO 35 34 36 39 41 45 48 49 44 41 38 36 35 33 34 37 38 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 36 40 43 44 39 36 33 31 30 28 29 32 33 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 31 34 35 30 27 24 22 21 19 20 23 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT