* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVENTEEN AL172020 09/07/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 37 43 48 51 51 49 46 45 43 43 44 47 48 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 37 43 48 51 51 49 46 45 43 43 44 47 48 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 38 40 40 39 36 34 31 30 29 30 31 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 5 7 11 10 15 16 24 25 27 21 24 12 10 10 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -4 -1 0 1 0 0 3 0 3 0 3 1 4 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 220 222 188 213 253 238 241 225 220 223 239 230 236 216 239 247 284 SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.4 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 127 127 127 130 130 131 135 138 143 145 147 150 152 157 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 113 115 114 115 119 120 121 125 126 132 132 132 134 133 138 142 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 58 58 60 61 61 62 59 55 56 55 54 58 58 59 58 55 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 17 18 19 19 18 16 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 92 99 98 110 98 107 112 99 91 90 79 77 69 66 44 29 4 200 MB DIV 19 23 35 32 42 60 35 12 5 5 0 15 -8 35 13 25 1 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 1 1 6 9 -2 0 -2 0 -2 3 5 5 3 LAND (KM) 1780 1760 1740 1732 1726 1697 1682 1648 1596 1496 1350 1177 1019 959 978 1015 1044 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.3 17.3 17.5 17.6 17.9 18.6 19.1 19.8 20.4 20.9 21.3 21.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.0 42.3 42.7 43.0 43.3 44.2 45.7 47.5 49.4 51.2 53.1 54.9 56.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 3 3 4 6 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 6 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 7 7 8 10 11 12 15 24 44 44 37 33 30 30 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. 29. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -6. -8. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 7. 13. 18. 21. 21. 19. 16. 15. 13. 13. 14. 17. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.2 42.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 SEVENTEEN 09/07/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.83 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.18 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.29 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 145.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.51 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 12.1% 9.2% 7.3% 5.6% 9.0% 9.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 10.0% 5.0% 1.7% 0.6% 4.1% 8.0% 10.6% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% Consensus: 1.8% 7.5% 4.8% 3.0% 2.1% 4.4% 5.9% 3.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 SEVENTEEN 09/07/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 SEVENTEEN 09/07/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 36 37 43 48 51 51 49 46 45 43 43 44 47 48 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 35 41 46 49 49 47 44 43 41 41 42 45 46 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 30 36 41 44 44 42 39 38 36 36 37 40 41 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 27 32 35 35 33 30 29 27 27 28 31 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT