* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLGA AL172019 10/26/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 50 50 49 48 36 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 48 36 32 30 29 30 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 49 38 33 30 29 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 39 47 56 65 62 55 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 8 1 -1 -1 0 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 218 227 228 227 223 231 250 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 23.0 21.7 22.6 9.5 12.5 11.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 97 91 96 70 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 143 92 86 90 69 70 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.5 1.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 55 55 56 54 52 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 21 22 22 23 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 108 112 102 75 71 127 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 63 44 76 94 126 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 34 51 105 62 38 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 287 22 -179 -457 -734 -792 -737 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.0 29.5 31.9 34.6 37.3 41.7 46.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 92.5 91.6 90.8 89.5 88.3 84.0 78.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 26 27 29 28 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 15 CX,CY: 10/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -16. -29. -41. -51. -60. -67. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 8. 8. 6. 6. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. -9. -18. -28. -38. -49. -57. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 27.0 92.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172019 OLGA 10/26/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 53.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.60 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.45 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 57.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 187.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172019 OLGA 10/26/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172019 OLGA 10/26/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 36 32 30 29 30 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 32 28 26 25 26 26 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 37 35 34 35 35 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 32 33 33 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT