* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVENTEEN AL172019 10/25/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 42 42 41 35 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 32 30 29 29 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 38 39 32 29 29 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 40 52 61 64 51 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 11 6 1 0 0 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 218 214 228 229 226 224 246 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.4 22.5 21.7 22.3 9.5 9.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 94 91 94 70 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 137 138 88 86 89 69 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.5 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 57 56 56 54 56 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 19 21 20 21 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 102 114 115 98 61 129 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 88 80 61 45 71 128 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 24 16 45 52 68 -6 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 360 211 14 -212 -489 -999 -881 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.9 27.8 29.6 32.2 34.8 40.3 45.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.6 92.7 91.8 90.8 89.9 87.1 82.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 20 23 27 29 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 17 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 13 CX,CY: 7/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -10. -24. -37. -49. -59. -67. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 0. -9. -17. -27. -37. -45. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 25.9 93.6 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172019 SEVENTEEN 10/25/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 50.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.29 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.62 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.40 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.46 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 135.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172019 SEVENTEEN 10/25/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172019 SEVENTEEN 10/25/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 40 32 30 29 29 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 36 28 26 25 25 26 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 23 21 20 20 21 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 23 22 22 23 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT