* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL172017 10/16/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 64 59 52 45 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 64 59 52 41 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 70 64 58 50 39 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 49 43 41 35 34 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 -1 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 175 166 177 195 212 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 16.4 14.6 13.5 13.1 13.0 11.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 78 74 73 72 71 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 75 71 70 69 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.1 -53.7 -53.3 -52.9 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.9 1.0 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 52 49 48 43 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 42 45 44 39 34 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 22 29 22 14 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 69 74 57 46 24 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -108 -144 -53 12 1 -50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 512 193 50 50 -8 237 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 47.6 50.4 53.3 55.6 57.8 61.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 13.4 11.8 10.2 7.9 5.6 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 35 30 29 26 26 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 40 CX,CY: 7/ 39 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 364 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -4. -9. -14. -19. -26. -31. -34. -38. -40. -41. -42. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -9. -16. -24. -30. -35. -41. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 13. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. -3. -7. -23. -27. -30. -32. -33. -34. -34. -34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -18. -25. -47. -60. -73. -81. -86. -92. -98.-104. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 47.6 13.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172017 OPHELIA 10/16/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.41 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.81 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 0.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.40 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 180.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.76 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172017 OPHELIA 10/16/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** 0(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 64 59 52 41 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 64 57 46 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 59 48 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 49 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT