* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL172017 10/15/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 69 64 59 52 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 69 64 59 40 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 75 68 62 55 38 33 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 46 41 40 34 39 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 3 5 0 1 1 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 195 182 174 177 191 221 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 19.9 18.1 15.9 14.2 13.8 12.1 11.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 85 80 76 74 73 69 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 80 75 73 71 70 67 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.1 -54.5 -53.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 1.2 0.5 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 50 49 52 50 45 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 36 44 47 45 40 27 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 78 57 34 34 35 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 53 95 98 70 20 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -78 -116 -130 -86 5 -32 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 422 419 348 30 -54 124 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 43.1 45.8 48.5 51.4 54.2 59.0 61.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 14.3 12.6 11.0 8.9 6.9 2.5 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 32 29 31 31 29 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 33 CX,CY: 17/ 29 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 443 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -4. -9. -14. -19. -27. -34. -38. -42. -45. -47. -48. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -10. -16. -22. -26. -30. -35. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 13. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 2. 4. 5. 2. -11. -25. -28. -30. -30. -31. -32. -32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -16. -23. -43. -66. -78. -86. -91. -96.-101.-105. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 43.1 14.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172017 OPHELIA 10/15/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.62 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.73 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -1.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 188.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.75 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172017 OPHELIA 10/15/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** 0(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 69 64 59 40 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 69 64 45 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 66 47 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 46 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT