* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL172017 10/15/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 84 78 74 69 53 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 84 78 74 69 45 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 90 85 79 72 64 41 31 29 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 32 39 47 44 35 35 42 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 10 7 3 -1 1 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 223 209 198 187 173 197 216 235 244 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.9 21.6 20.1 18.1 15.6 13.2 12.8 11.9 11.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 97 91 86 81 76 71 68 65 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 90 85 80 76 72 69 66 62 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.0 -54.6 -54.4 -54.7 -53.5 -54.0 -55.0 -56.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 48 48 46 48 50 49 44 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 34 39 46 48 41 28 18 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 119 97 67 48 25 21 0 -76 -118 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 30 16 62 86 78 28 6 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -62 -60 -101 -111 -133 7 -26 -14 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 919 709 488 464 338 -67 -49 203 308 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.0 40.4 42.8 45.8 48.8 53.9 57.8 59.8 60.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 19.7 17.4 15.1 13.4 11.8 8.5 4.8 2.4 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 29 30 31 32 30 25 17 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 29 CX,CY: 25/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 465 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -4. -9. -15. -22. -33. -41. -50. -57. -62. -64. -65. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -10. -13. -17. -18. -21. -27. -28. -30. -33. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 15. 17. 18. 17. 17. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 9. 12. 9. -6. -20. -36. -37. -38. -39. -38. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -14. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -16. -21. -37. -59. -82.-105.-110.-114.-118.-121. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 38.0 19.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172017 OPHELIA 10/15/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -9.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.37 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 316.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.63 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 84.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.15 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172017 OPHELIA 10/15/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 84 78 74 69 45 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 83 79 74 50 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 82 77 53 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 75 51 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 47 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 84 75 69 66 48 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT