* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL172017 10/15/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 95 89 81 76 62 44 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 95 89 81 76 62 43 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 100 95 89 82 74 54 39 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 26 28 40 46 41 35 36 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 6 8 11 2 0 -2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 226 216 209 197 187 180 199 224 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.2 23.0 21.8 20.1 18.2 14.2 13.1 12.6 11.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 97 92 86 81 73 70 67 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 96 90 86 81 76 70 67 64 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.4 -55.0 -54.4 -54.2 -53.8 -53.0 -54.2 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.4 1.1 0.0 -0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 47 49 46 44 49 45 44 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 32 36 39 46 45 35 23 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 107 115 100 65 50 16 17 -52 -94 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 40 26 23 63 83 48 12 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -40 -63 -53 -88 -101 -83 -11 -6 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1223 947 712 521 466 84 90 9 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.3 38.1 39.9 42.8 45.7 51.4 55.9 58.5 60.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 22.7 20.1 17.4 15.5 13.6 11.0 7.6 4.7 2.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 25 28 29 32 31 27 20 13 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 23 CX,CY: 20/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -5. -10. -17. -23. -36. -47. -56. -66. -71. -73. -75. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -16. -21. -22. -23. -26. -25. -25. -26. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 13. 14. 15. 15. 14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 5. 12. 14. 4. -11. -28. -28. -29. -30. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -19. -24. -38. -56. -77.-100.-103.-107.-110.-111. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 36.3 22.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172017 OPHELIA 10/15/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 100.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -14.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.34 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 431.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.52 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 74.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.26 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172017 OPHELIA 10/15/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 95 89 81 76 62 43 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 93 85 80 66 47 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 88 83 69 50 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 85 71 52 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 67 48 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 95 86 80 77 68 49 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 95 89 80 74 70 51 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS