* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL172017 10/14/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 84 83 81 80 79 73 60 44 31 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 84 83 81 80 79 73 52 37 28 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 85 84 83 83 82 74 58 39 31 32 32 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 13 23 27 29 40 43 38 29 21 31 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -3 -3 2 4 4 -1 0 -2 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 286 222 207 208 199 188 166 189 204 242 258 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 25.1 24.8 24.1 23.1 20.0 15.3 13.2 12.9 11.5 10.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 109 108 104 98 86 75 71 69 67 66 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 99 97 98 96 91 80 72 69 66 65 63 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.0 -55.7 -55.8 -55.7 -54.9 -54.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -54.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.9 1.1 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 54 47 43 47 48 50 52 51 60 60 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 29 30 33 43 47 42 33 24 14 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 75 104 116 123 75 14 17 38 35 57 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 48 59 55 33 29 68 55 47 42 -38 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -21 -44 -41 -77 -108 -111 -4 5 12 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1686 1579 1471 1248 978 528 354 -32 -44 297 585 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.4 34.4 35.3 36.7 38.1 42.9 49.0 54.0 57.7 60.7 63.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 29.7 27.8 25.9 23.1 20.4 15.6 12.7 9.1 5.0 2.0 0.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 22 26 28 31 29 25 19 15 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 17 CX,CY: 15/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -5. -8. -12. -20. -28. -36. -43. -49. -52. -54. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -13. -16. -18. -17. -18. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 13. 12. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 16. 22. 18. 6. -7. -20. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -12. -25. -41. -54. -70. -74. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 33.4 29.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172017 OPHELIA 10/14/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.38 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.48 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 85.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.57 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 447.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.50 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 53.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172017 OPHELIA 10/14/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 84 83 81 80 79 73 52 37 28 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 83 81 80 79 73 52 37 28 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 79 78 77 71 50 35 26 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 74 73 67 46 31 22 DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 65 59 38 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 84 75 69 66 64 58 37 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 84 83 74 68 64 58 37 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS