* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL172017 10/13/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 83 82 83 84 84 87 80 64 49 37 34 31 V (KT) LAND 85 83 82 83 84 84 87 80 64 49 37 34 31 V (KT) LGEM 85 82 81 80 81 83 76 58 42 35 35 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 13 7 8 16 31 45 38 27 29 26 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -6 -2 -3 -4 5 9 1 3 0 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 332 333 311 245 219 211 190 161 185 203 229 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 25.7 25.4 25.0 24.8 23.0 20.0 15.7 13.5 12.8 10.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 113 111 108 108 97 85 75 72 71 69 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 99 99 99 98 98 90 79 71 69 68 67 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -55.9 -56.1 -56.0 -55.6 -55.1 -54.0 -53.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 55 56 52 47 47 49 53 56 55 51 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 25 26 28 34 45 48 41 32 25 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 29 49 86 103 122 79 64 51 61 65 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 2 22 40 62 60 35 48 98 67 45 46 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 7 6 -6 -28 -65 -55 -107 22 5 -27 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1865 1767 1669 1543 1419 973 576 416 47 57 437 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.0 32.7 33.4 34.3 35.2 38.4 43.3 48.5 53.5 58.0 62.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 32.5 31.0 29.5 27.4 25.3 20.4 16.2 13.1 10.4 6.7 1.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 17 20 22 27 28 27 26 24 23 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 10 CX,CY: 9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -11. -17. -25. -33. -40. -45. -49. -51. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. -0. -3. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 23. 28. 19. 7. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -6. -5. -6. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 2. -5. -21. -36. -48. -51. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 32.0 32.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172017 OPHELIA 10/13/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.52 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 85.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.57 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 488.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.46 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 49.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172017 OPHELIA 10/13/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 83 82 83 84 84 87 80 64 49 37 34 31 18HR AGO 85 84 83 84 85 85 88 81 65 50 38 35 32 12HR AGO 85 82 81 82 83 83 86 79 63 48 36 33 30 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 76 76 79 72 56 41 29 26 23 NOW 85 76 70 67 66 66 69 62 46 31 19 16 DIS IN 6HR 85 83 74 68 65 64 67 60 44 29 17 DIS DIS IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT