* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL172017 10/13/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 87 83 79 76 79 82 83 77 61 47 39 28 V (KT) LAND 90 87 83 79 76 79 82 83 77 53 42 34 22 V (KT) LGEM 90 88 84 80 79 80 84 76 60 45 33 37 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 14 11 14 8 13 29 39 33 28 23 25 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 -5 -2 -4 5 10 3 2 2 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 357 360 333 330 311 227 211 189 164 192 228 272 262 SST (C) 26.2 26.1 25.9 25.7 25.3 24.8 23.3 20.7 16.1 13.3 12.7 10.7 10.8 POT. INT. (KT) 115 114 113 113 110 107 98 88 77 72 71 68 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 98 98 99 99 98 98 90 82 73 70 68 66 65 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -56.3 -55.9 -55.9 -55.9 -55.5 -55.4 -54.5 -54.5 -53.7 -53.2 -53.5 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.3 0.4 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 53 53 56 58 53 50 50 60 62 59 67 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 26 25 24 29 35 45 48 41 31 26 18 850 MB ENV VOR 5 15 10 24 49 109 102 72 35 11 58 75 178 200 MB DIV -51 -21 13 16 39 51 28 44 83 53 43 49 -70 700-850 TADV 4 8 10 7 8 -21 -62 -72 -86 0 37 53 4 LAND (KM) 1982 1917 1852 1751 1651 1396 1011 611 444 -38 4 463 297 LAT (DEG N) 30.9 31.3 31.7 32.4 33.0 34.8 37.7 42.2 48.0 53.6 58.4 62.4 65.7 LONG(DEG W) 34.4 33.4 32.5 31.0 29.5 25.3 20.7 16.5 12.6 8.9 5.2 2.0 -0.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 12 14 17 22 25 29 31 28 24 20 17 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -13. -19. -26. -33. -41. -47. -52. -55. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -6. -9. -9. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. 1. 9. 21. 25. 14. 1. -7. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -14. -11. -8. -7. -13. -29. -43. -51. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 30.9 34.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172017 OPHELIA 10/13/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.52 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.14 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 529.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.42 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 26.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.73 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 3.1% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172017 OPHELIA 10/13/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 87 83 79 76 79 82 83 77 53 42 34 22 18HR AGO 90 89 85 81 78 81 84 85 79 55 44 36 24 12HR AGO 90 87 86 82 79 82 85 86 80 56 45 37 25 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 77 80 83 84 78 54 43 35 23 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 74 77 78 72 48 37 29 17 IN 6HR 90 87 78 72 69 69 72 73 67 43 32 24 DIS IN 12HR 90 87 83 74 68 64 67 68 62 38 27 19 DIS