* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL172017 10/13/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 87 83 79 77 77 83 83 81 69 55 46 39 V (KT) LAND 90 87 83 79 77 77 83 83 81 69 51 43 35 V (KT) LGEM 90 89 86 82 79 78 82 81 68 50 39 38 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 20 15 12 14 7 26 38 42 28 22 22 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 1 0 -5 -4 -5 8 0 0 2 4 -4 SHEAR DIR 345 360 6 341 340 269 223 195 170 167 206 232 274 SST (C) 26.3 26.2 26.1 25.9 25.7 25.0 24.3 22.1 18.8 14.7 13.0 11.8 10.8 POT. INT. (KT) 115 115 115 114 113 108 104 93 82 74 72 70 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 97 98 99 99 99 98 95 86 76 71 69 68 67 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -56.7 -56.5 -56.0 -56.0 -56.2 -55.9 -55.0 -54.8 -54.4 -53.7 -53.9 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.4 1.4 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 52 53 53 56 54 48 50 56 66 65 65 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 25 25 25 27 33 40 48 44 35 30 25 850 MB ENV VOR 0 7 16 16 24 83 110 97 56 21 24 29 73 200 MB DIV -29 -34 -11 6 17 46 49 47 76 104 60 45 -79 700-850 TADV 1 2 7 8 6 3 -35 -107 -115 -73 29 18 36 LAND (KM) 2045 1976 1926 1841 1758 1533 1272 840 528 188 29 172 248 LAT (DEG N) 30.5 30.9 31.2 31.8 32.3 33.8 36.1 39.9 45.0 50.3 55.3 60.0 64.5 LONG(DEG W) 35.1 34.4 33.6 32.4 31.1 27.6 23.2 18.9 15.1 11.5 8.2 4.2 -0.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 10 12 14 19 23 27 29 28 27 25 24 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -13. -19. -25. -32. -39. -46. -50. -54. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -6. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 8. 16. 26. 20. 9. 1. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -6. -5. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -13. -13. -7. -7. -9. -21. -35. -44. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 30.5 35.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172017 OPHELIA 10/13/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.42 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.09 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 563.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.39 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 29.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.71 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 2.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 999.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172017 OPHELIA 10/13/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172017 OPHELIA 10/13/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 87 83 79 77 77 83 83 81 69 51 43 35 18HR AGO 90 89 85 81 79 79 85 85 83 71 53 45 37 12HR AGO 90 87 86 82 80 80 86 86 84 72 54 46 38 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 78 78 84 84 82 70 52 44 36 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 71 77 77 75 63 45 37 29 IN 6HR 90 87 78 72 69 71 77 77 75 63 45 37 29 IN 12HR 90 87 83 74 68 64 70 70 68 56 38 30 22