* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL172017 10/12/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 85 83 80 77 74 81 80 79 72 58 42 38 V (KT) LAND 85 85 83 80 77 74 81 80 79 72 58 42 38 V (KT) LGEM 85 86 84 81 79 76 80 82 73 56 42 37 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 15 20 16 12 8 18 41 47 33 23 15 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 0 -2 -5 -6 2 9 2 5 6 -2 SHEAR DIR 360 344 357 8 352 313 228 205 182 156 177 196 272 SST (C) 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.0 25.4 24.8 23.0 20.3 16.1 13.6 12.4 10.4 POT. INT. (KT) 115 116 116 116 114 111 108 97 85 76 72 71 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 96 97 99 100 100 99 97 88 79 72 69 68 67 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -56.6 -56.7 -56.6 -56.1 -56.1 -55.7 -55.0 -54.4 -54.5 -52.9 -52.8 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.7 2.1 3.1 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 48 51 52 52 54 47 49 54 64 67 64 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 24 25 25 23 23 29 34 45 48 41 31 29 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -3 10 18 15 55 111 116 60 59 82 39 92 200 MB DIV -7 -26 -32 -22 9 49 49 29 37 64 69 67 47 700-850 TADV 2 1 2 5 9 -3 -27 -111 -110 -94 -13 -9 -1 LAND (KM) 2098 2067 2017 1945 1874 1678 1454 1048 657 492 122 149 440 LAT (DEG N) 30.5 30.8 31.1 31.6 32.0 33.4 35.4 38.7 43.1 48.1 53.6 58.3 62.4 LONG(DEG W) 35.7 35.2 34.7 33.6 32.6 29.6 25.6 21.3 17.2 14.0 11.8 8.2 3.6 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 8 10 12 17 22 25 27 28 27 24 23 HEAT CONTENT 3 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -5. -8. -11. -16. -22. -28. -34. -40. -44. -47. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. -3. -8. -10. -10. -10. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. 1. 7. 21. 24. 14. 1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -3. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -4. -5. -6. -13. -27. -43. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 30.5 35.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172017 OPHELIA 10/12/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.01 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 85.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.57 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 563.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.39 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 33.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.66 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 3.6% 2.4% 1.1% 0.5% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 1.2% 0.8% 0.4% 999.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172017 OPHELIA 10/12/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172017 OPHELIA 10/12/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 85 83 80 77 74 81 80 79 72 58 42 38 18HR AGO 85 84 82 79 76 73 80 79 78 71 57 41 37 12HR AGO 85 82 81 78 75 72 79 78 77 70 56 40 36 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 72 69 76 75 74 67 53 37 33 NOW 85 76 70 67 66 63 70 69 68 61 47 31 27 IN 6HR 85 85 76 70 67 63 70 69 68 61 47 31 27 IN 12HR 85 85 83 74 68 64 71 70 69 62 48 32 28