* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL172017 10/11/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 72 74 74 73 70 71 74 78 81 73 61 V (KT) LAND 65 69 72 74 74 73 70 71 74 78 81 73 61 V (KT) LGEM 65 69 72 73 74 72 70 69 72 76 71 59 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 10 12 10 18 11 11 12 17 33 37 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -8 -6 -1 -2 -2 -4 -4 -5 5 13 1 3 SHEAR DIR 297 316 345 9 352 346 340 313 278 226 187 166 179 SST (C) 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.2 25.9 25.3 24.6 22.8 20.3 16.0 13.2 POT. INT. (KT) 115 114 115 115 116 114 113 111 106 96 86 77 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 95 94 95 96 98 97 99 100 97 88 80 73 71 200 MB T (C) -57.4 -57.3 -57.2 -56.7 -56.1 -56.1 -55.7 -56.0 -55.6 -55.4 -54.1 -53.5 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.1 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 4 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 48 51 51 52 52 53 56 51 50 51 53 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 27 27 25 25 23 24 27 33 42 43 39 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -6 -4 -4 -9 0 10 59 114 112 82 46 96 200 MB DIV 9 -12 -24 -8 -15 -22 6 31 54 35 21 65 64 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 3 2 2 9 -1 -12 -61 -100 -97 18 LAND (KM) 2122 2107 2091 2076 2062 1960 1852 1626 1336 908 536 453 170 LAT (DEG N) 30.0 30.0 29.9 30.2 30.5 31.2 31.9 33.2 35.1 38.1 42.3 48.1 55.0 LONG(DEG W) 36.2 36.1 35.9 35.6 35.3 34.0 32.4 29.1 24.3 19.6 15.6 13.1 11.9 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 2 4 6 7 11 19 23 25 28 33 34 HEAT CONTENT 6 2 3 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -20. -22. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -4. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -2. 1. 7. 19. 19. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 9. 8. 5. 6. 9. 13. 16. 8. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 30.0 36.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172017 OPHELIA 10/11/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.71 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.02 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.53 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.89 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.02 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.09 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 391.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.55 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 72.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.27 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.4% 17.1% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 13.6% 9.3% 4.9% 0.9% 2.0% 3.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 10.3% 7.9% 1.6% 999.0% 0.7% 1.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172017 OPHELIA 10/11/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172017 OPHELIA 10/11/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 69 72 74 74 73 70 71 74 78 81 73 61 18HR AGO 65 64 67 69 69 68 65 66 69 73 76 68 56 12HR AGO 65 62 61 63 63 62 59 60 63 67 70 62 50 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 55 54 51 52 55 59 62 54 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT