* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL172017 10/11/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 62 65 68 71 72 69 70 73 76 75 82 V (KT) LAND 55 59 62 65 68 71 72 69 70 73 76 75 82 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 63 67 69 71 70 68 66 67 69 69 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 7 11 13 12 12 18 10 13 11 25 36 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -6 -7 -5 -4 -2 0 -4 -3 6 22 4 SHEAR DIR 327 322 304 330 6 329 355 338 325 254 221 215 212 SST (C) 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.2 25.8 25.3 24.8 23.6 21.5 19.7 POT. INT. (KT) 118 118 116 115 115 115 115 113 110 107 99 89 82 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 98 97 95 95 97 99 98 97 96 90 81 76 200 MB T (C) -57.2 -57.3 -57.2 -57.2 -57.2 -56.3 -56.8 -56.4 -56.6 -55.9 -55.8 -54.8 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 4 3 2 2 0 700-500 MB RH 53 53 53 51 51 51 52 54 55 45 41 47 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 22 22 24 24 24 22 23 25 30 34 46 850 MB ENV VOR -2 2 -3 -8 -12 -17 -16 4 47 110 101 106 31 200 MB DIV -14 1 11 -13 -22 -16 -39 -26 42 40 46 18 27 700-850 TADV 0 -1 1 0 0 4 1 10 0 -17 -63 -25 -35 LAND (KM) 2228 2189 2149 2131 2113 2058 1960 1818 1617 1385 1038 597 213 LAT (DEG N) 30.4 30.2 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.2 31.0 31.9 33.0 34.6 36.7 39.4 42.4 LONG(DEG W) 37.2 36.9 36.5 36.3 36.1 35.4 34.1 32.0 29.1 25.3 20.7 16.1 11.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 2 2 5 9 12 16 20 22 22 23 HEAT CONTENT 6 10 8 8 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):135/ 6 CX,CY: 4/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. -2. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 17. 14. 15. 18. 21. 20. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 30.4 37.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172017 OPHELIA 10/11/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.70 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.05 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.49 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.91 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.12 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.11 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 318.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.63 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 70.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.29 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 16.1% 13.0% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 11.1% 6.4% 2.3% 0.3% 1.5% 2.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 9.1% 6.5% 3.7% 999.0% 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172017 OPHELIA 10/11/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172017 OPHELIA 10/11/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 59 62 65 68 71 72 69 70 73 76 75 82 18HR AGO 55 54 57 60 63 66 67 64 65 68 71 70 77 12HR AGO 55 52 51 54 57 60 61 58 59 62 65 64 71 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 48 51 52 49 50 53 56 55 62 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT