* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL172017 10/11/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 54 57 64 64 67 66 69 74 72 64 V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 54 57 64 64 67 66 69 74 72 64 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 49 53 56 62 65 65 63 64 66 64 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 10 7 10 10 12 18 13 17 14 28 36 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -6 -3 -6 -6 -3 -4 2 -5 -1 -5 4 3 SHEAR DIR 306 334 323 307 329 15 330 343 313 268 217 201 202 SST (C) 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.3 26.0 25.6 25.1 24.5 22.9 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 119 118 118 116 116 116 115 113 111 108 105 95 87 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 99 98 96 96 97 98 98 97 97 94 86 80 200 MB T (C) -57.2 -57.2 -57.4 -57.1 -57.0 -56.6 -56.1 -56.3 -56.1 -56.2 -55.8 -55.5 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.4 -0.2 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 3 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 53 53 53 52 50 50 50 53 55 53 41 39 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 22 23 25 27 25 27 25 26 30 32 31 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -4 3 -5 -7 -16 -18 3 28 89 107 104 42 200 MB DIV -21 -5 2 6 -15 -10 -18 -33 18 47 42 20 20 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 9 9 -4 -45 -88 -93 LAND (KM) 2199 2248 2206 2180 2153 2116 2027 1895 1749 1547 1310 882 474 LAT (DEG N) 30.9 30.6 30.3 30.2 30.1 30.3 30.7 31.5 32.5 33.9 35.6 37.7 40.2 LONG(DEG W) 37.8 37.4 37.0 36.8 36.5 36.0 34.8 33.1 30.9 27.7 23.5 19.2 14.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 3 2 2 4 7 9 13 17 20 21 21 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 7 9 8 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):140/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 1. -4. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 3. 5. 3. 3. 7. 10. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 19. 19. 22. 22. 24. 29. 27. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 30.9 37.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172017 OPHELIA 10/11/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.73 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.05 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.45 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.63 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.22 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.11 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 268.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.67 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 74.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.26 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 12.4% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 5.7% 3.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.6% 1.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 6.0% 4.4% 0.3% 999.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172017 OPHELIA 10/11/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172017 OPHELIA 10/11/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 50 54 57 64 64 67 66 69 74 72 64 18HR AGO 45 44 47 51 54 61 61 64 63 66 71 69 61 12HR AGO 45 42 41 45 48 55 55 58 57 60 65 63 55 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 45 45 48 47 50 55 53 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT