* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL172017 10/10/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 57 61 65 70 73 73 73 75 77 80 82 V (KT) LAND 50 53 57 61 65 70 73 73 73 75 77 80 82 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 57 62 65 70 70 69 67 67 68 69 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 11 7 6 12 12 15 12 7 12 28 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -9 -6 -4 -4 -4 -4 -2 -6 0 5 13 10 SHEAR DIR 281 303 326 309 296 22 352 347 330 294 237 210 220 SST (C) 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.3 26.0 25.5 24.9 24.4 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 118 118 119 118 117 116 116 116 114 111 106 102 95 ADJ. POT. INT. 98 99 99 98 97 97 98 98 99 98 94 90 84 200 MB T (C) -57.4 -57.3 -57.3 -57.2 -56.8 -56.7 -56.1 -56.4 -55.7 -56.1 -55.9 -56.0 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 51 52 52 52 52 51 50 50 51 56 51 44 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 24 24 26 26 27 27 26 27 29 35 41 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -6 -4 0 -4 -12 -11 -13 -3 27 88 107 115 200 MB DIV -19 -19 -12 -12 2 -22 -21 -17 7 39 62 24 40 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 1 0 3 3 9 -4 -7 -38 -3 LAND (KM) 2141 2189 2238 2243 2213 2155 2098 1999 1878 1702 1480 1281 962 LAT (DEG N) 31.3 31.0 30.6 30.3 30.0 29.9 30.3 30.9 31.7 32.8 34.2 35.5 36.7 LONG(DEG W) 38.2 37.9 37.6 37.4 37.2 36.6 35.8 34.6 32.8 30.2 26.7 23.2 19.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 3 3 3 5 7 11 14 16 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 8 8 9 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):130/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 6. 5. 3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 6. 13. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 20. 23. 23. 23. 25. 27. 30. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 31.3 38.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172017 OPHELIA 10/10/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.74 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.05 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.52 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.77 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.18 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.08 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 302.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.64 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 79.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.20 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 15.1% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 12.8% 7.9% 3.6% 0.4% 1.6% 2.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 9.3% 6.7% 1.2% 999.0% 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172017 OPHELIA 10/10/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172017 OPHELIA 10/10/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 57 61 65 70 73 73 73 75 77 80 82 18HR AGO 50 49 53 57 61 66 69 69 69 71 73 76 78 12HR AGO 50 47 46 50 54 59 62 62 62 64 66 69 71 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 44 49 52 52 52 54 56 59 61 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT