* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL172017 10/10/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 55 60 66 71 71 71 71 76 78 78 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 55 60 66 71 71 71 71 76 78 78 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 50 54 58 66 70 70 68 67 67 68 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 13 12 9 9 11 17 10 9 11 24 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -7 -8 -7 -4 -3 0 -2 0 -7 -2 1 7 SHEAR DIR 269 283 303 327 328 310 7 349 360 322 264 221 207 SST (C) 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.2 25.8 25.2 24.7 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 118 118 119 120 119 117 117 116 115 113 109 105 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 97 98 100 100 100 98 98 98 99 99 96 93 89 200 MB T (C) -57.7 -57.5 -57.3 -57.3 -57.4 -56.9 -56.6 -56.1 -56.2 -55.7 -55.8 -55.8 -56.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 5 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 50 50 52 53 53 51 51 49 50 54 52 47 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 22 24 25 27 26 26 26 28 31 34 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -14 -7 -11 -6 -4 -13 -12 1 16 68 93 100 200 MB DIV -12 -21 -16 -9 0 -10 -9 -44 6 19 47 50 33 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 0 0 2 2 3 -2 -4 -27 -29 LAND (KM) 2097 2143 2189 2244 2241 2175 2116 2058 1965 1818 1579 1366 1135 LAT (DEG N) 31.6 31.3 30.9 30.5 30.0 29.7 29.6 30.2 31.1 32.1 33.1 34.4 35.8 LONG(DEG W) 38.5 38.3 38.0 37.8 37.5 36.9 36.3 35.4 34.1 31.9 28.6 25.2 21.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 5 4 3 4 6 9 12 15 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 7 8 11 8 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):125/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 3. 6. 8. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 21. 26. 26. 26. 26. 31. 33. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 31.6 38.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172017 OPHELIA 10/10/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.70 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.05 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.50 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.63 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.23 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.09 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 276.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.67 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 86.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.13 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 13.7% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 4.2% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 1.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 6.0% 4.5% 0.2% 999.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172017 OPHELIA 10/10/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172017 OPHELIA 10/10/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 51 55 60 66 71 71 71 71 76 78 78 18HR AGO 45 44 47 51 56 62 67 67 67 67 72 74 74 12HR AGO 45 42 41 45 50 56 61 61 61 61 66 68 68 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 40 46 51 51 51 51 56 58 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT