* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL172017 10/10/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 52 57 64 69 72 73 69 71 72 69 V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 52 57 64 69 72 73 69 71 72 69 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 47 51 55 63 69 70 68 64 62 60 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 15 13 8 9 10 14 15 18 16 10 12 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -7 -6 -6 -8 -4 -6 -4 -3 -1 -6 0 6 SHEAR DIR 265 266 279 296 322 10 339 6 13 36 352 250 220 SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.7 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 117 116 116 117 117 118 117 117 116 114 113 111 106 ADJ. POT. INT. 97 95 95 96 96 98 97 98 98 97 96 95 92 200 MB T (C) -57.7 -57.8 -57.8 -57.8 -57.6 -57.4 -56.7 -56.5 -55.8 -56.0 -55.5 -55.5 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 6 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 50 52 51 51 53 52 52 51 52 51 56 53 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 19 20 21 22 23 24 22 24 26 26 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -3 -8 -5 2 4 -8 -13 -17 -5 25 68 93 200 MB DIV -7 6 0 -3 -23 -5 -8 -25 -33 8 40 27 46 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 2 1 2 -5 -24 LAND (KM) 2004 2017 2030 2067 2104 2191 2241 2161 2062 1969 1904 1771 1597 LAT (DEG N) 32.2 32.2 32.2 32.0 31.8 31.1 30.5 30.3 30.5 31.2 32.1 32.8 33.3 LONG(DEG W) 39.2 38.9 38.7 38.3 38.0 37.6 37.3 36.5 35.3 34.1 32.9 31.0 28.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 3 4 3 4 3 4 6 6 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 8 9 5 9 8 1 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 6 CX,CY: 4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 3. 4. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 24. 29. 32. 33. 29. 31. 32. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 32.2 39.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172017 OPHELIA 10/10/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.63 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.05 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.73 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.25 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.12 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 243.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.70 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 91.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.09 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 13.8% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 13.0% 7.7% 2.3% 0.2% 1.9% 3.9% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 9.0% 6.2% 0.8% 999.0% 0.6% 1.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172017 OPHELIA 10/10/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172017 OPHELIA 10/10/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 44 48 52 57 64 69 72 73 69 71 72 69 18HR AGO 40 39 43 47 52 59 64 67 68 64 66 67 64 12HR AGO 40 37 36 40 45 52 57 60 61 57 59 60 57 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 35 42 47 50 51 47 49 50 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT