* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL172017 10/09/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 50 53 59 64 64 65 61 59 58 60 V (KT) LAND 40 43 47 50 53 59 64 64 65 61 59 58 60 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 46 49 52 58 65 67 65 61 58 55 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 21 19 14 13 12 14 25 23 25 18 11 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -7 -7 -5 -7 -6 -4 -3 -3 -2 0 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 271 273 281 293 302 342 5 5 11 25 27 341 265 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.1 25.8 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 119 119 118 118 117 118 118 117 116 115 114 111 108 ADJ. POT. INT. 98 98 97 97 97 98 98 98 97 98 98 96 93 200 MB T (C) -57.8 -57.7 -57.8 -57.8 -57.8 -57.5 -57.1 -56.8 -56.4 -56.7 -56.3 -56.1 -56.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 4 2 700-500 MB RH 50 52 54 52 53 54 55 53 49 49 52 56 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 16 16 17 18 18 19 18 18 18 20 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -7 -11 -15 -13 -4 -3 -15 -19 -22 2 12 34 200 MB DIV 7 -8 -1 2 -9 -15 -5 -13 -44 -24 16 12 33 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 2 6 3 4 0 -11 LAND (KM) 2046 2058 2071 2101 2131 2190 2239 2178 2111 2027 1908 1783 1654 LAT (DEG N) 31.5 31.6 31.6 31.5 31.4 31.0 30.2 29.8 29.7 30.1 30.8 31.5 32.3 LONG(DEG W) 39.7 39.4 39.0 38.6 38.2 37.8 37.4 36.9 36.2 35.1 33.6 31.8 29.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 4 3 3 4 3 4 6 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 9 9 8 10 1 1 1 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -1. -4. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 0. 2. -0. -1. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 19. 24. 24. 25. 21. 19. 18. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 31.5 39.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172017 OPHELIA 10/09/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.46 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.06 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.76 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.26 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.13 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 236.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.70 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 86.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.13 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 12.8% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 10.0% 5.8% 1.6% 0.1% 1.2% 1.9% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 7.6% 5.3% 0.5% 999.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172017 OPHELIA 10/09/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172017 OPHELIA 10/09/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 47 50 53 59 64 64 65 61 59 58 60 18HR AGO 40 39 43 46 49 55 60 60 61 57 55 54 56 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 42 48 53 53 54 50 48 47 49 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 33 39 44 44 45 41 39 38 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT