* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVENTEEN AL172017 10/09/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 48 54 60 64 63 61 58 58 62 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 48 54 60 64 63 61 58 58 62 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 38 40 43 49 56 62 64 62 59 57 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 20 25 21 16 13 9 19 24 20 17 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -5 -7 -6 -5 -8 -4 -5 -4 -2 -3 -7 -1 SHEAR DIR 272 278 278 287 288 298 355 360 15 14 21 50 233 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.3 25.9 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 119 119 118 117 117 118 118 118 116 116 116 112 109 ADJ. POT. INT. 98 98 97 97 96 98 99 98 97 98 99 97 94 200 MB T (C) -58.0 -57.8 -57.7 -57.8 -57.8 -57.7 -57.6 -57.2 -57.0 -56.8 -57.1 -57.0 -57.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 5 3 700-500 MB RH 53 52 51 54 51 51 52 52 50 48 51 53 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 13 14 15 16 17 16 15 13 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 18 -1 -3 -5 -10 0 1 -3 -17 -17 0 10 24 200 MB DIV 7 12 -9 6 0 -18 -23 -2 -24 -48 0 27 36 700-850 TADV 4 2 0 0 -1 0 -2 0 0 0 3 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 2051 2048 2047 2064 2082 2136 2239 2199 2159 2094 1991 1843 1709 LAT (DEG N) 31.3 31.5 31.7 31.7 31.7 31.4 30.7 30.1 29.5 29.5 30.1 30.7 31.4 LONG(DEG W) 40.0 39.6 39.3 38.9 38.6 38.1 37.4 37.0 36.8 36.1 34.7 32.9 31.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 3 3 2 4 4 3 3 5 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 11 9 8 8 8 8 8 1 2 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -1. -3. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 13. 13. 14. 14. 15. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 19. 25. 29. 28. 26. 23. 23. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 31.3 40.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172017 SEVENTEEN 10/09/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.33 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.06 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.71 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.32 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.30 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.16 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 207.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.73 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 96.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.03 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 9.7% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 5.2% 2.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 0.9% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 5.0% 3.5% 0.2% 999.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172017 SEVENTEEN 10/09/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172017 SEVENTEEN 10/09/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 41 44 48 54 60 64 63 61 58 58 62 18HR AGO 35 34 37 40 44 50 56 60 59 57 54 54 58 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 38 44 50 54 53 51 48 48 52 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 35 41 45 44 42 39 39 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT