* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902020 09/04/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 32 37 43 49 53 56 59 63 65 67 66 65 66 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 32 37 43 49 53 56 59 63 65 67 66 65 66 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 31 32 33 36 39 44 50 55 55 55 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 18 17 19 24 22 15 14 14 10 13 13 17 18 16 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 0 3 2 -3 0 0 -4 -5 -1 -3 0 -2 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 62 69 65 60 53 66 84 76 79 106 129 134 161 141 152 155 151 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.6 29.7 30.0 30.0 29.4 28.9 28.5 28.9 29.0 29.2 28.8 27.6 27.7 28.4 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 161 162 166 165 158 153 147 150 150 151 149 138 140 147 151 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.4 -52.9 -52.3 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 6 4 8 6 9 7 11 9 11 9 10 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 75 75 79 80 81 81 82 78 78 74 74 71 70 67 70 67 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 49 57 55 53 42 28 -6 14 40 40 52 46 45 39 47 38 200 MB DIV 35 47 57 77 93 59 42 49 14 31 17 54 47 60 80 80 77 700-850 TADV 4 3 -1 1 2 0 1 -5 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 194 168 150 146 132 108 122 118 143 146 165 161 202 294 423 498 564 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.3 14.4 14.6 15.0 16.1 16.9 17.5 18.1 18.5 18.6 18.8 18.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.7 95.6 96.6 97.6 98.7 100.7 102.5 104.1 105.4 106.0 106.3 106.4 106.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 11 10 9 8 5 2 2 0 3 6 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 17 19 25 28 28 34 24 20 20 33 37 41 32 7 6 12 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 35. 38. 40. 41. 43. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -0. -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 34. 38. 40. 42. 41. 40. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.3 94.7 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902020 INVEST 09/04/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.87 7.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.19 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.49 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 37.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -5.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.82 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.5% 18.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 5.3% 1.7% 0.8% 0.3% 2.2% 13.5% 21.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% Consensus: 0.3% 9.8% 6.7% 0.3% 0.1% 6.2% 4.5% 7.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902020 INVEST 09/04/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##