* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NANA AL162020 09/04/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 22 20 18 20 27 35 43 50 55 59 65 71 77 77 78 82 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 26 28 35 43 51 58 63 67 73 79 85 85 86 90 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 26 26 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 8 13 14 16 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 2 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 80 23 37 50 63 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.5 30.1 29.6 29.5 29.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 161 172 163 161 163 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 148 158 171 161 158 162 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 7 6 8 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 75 77 78 81 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 70 69 65 64 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 54 39 45 59 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 7 2 6 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -164 -58 47 117 105 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.5 15.2 15.0 14.8 14.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 91.4 92.5 93.6 94.8 95.9 98.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 21 22 18 21 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 7. 15. 21. 26. 29. 33. 38. 43. 45. 47. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 15. 16. 17. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -7. -5. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -4. -6. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -5. 2. 10. 18. 25. 30. 34. 40. 46. 52. 52. 53. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.8 91.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162020 NANA 09/04/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.66 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.67 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 42.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.95 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 14.6% 10.1% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 16.0% 7.8% 2.9% 2.9% 4.6% 8.9% 24.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% Consensus: 1.4% 10.5% 6.0% 3.3% 1.0% 1.5% 3.0% 9.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162020 NANA 09/04/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162020 NANA 09/04/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 26 28 35 43 51 58 63 67 73 79 85 85 86 90 18HR AGO 25 24 26 24 26 33 41 49 56 61 65 71 77 83 83 84 88 12HR AGO 25 22 21 19 21 28 36 44 51 56 60 66 72 78 78 79 83 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 24 32 40 47 52 56 62 68 74 74 75 79 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT