* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NANA AL162020 09/03/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 69 70 72 72 75 79 82 84 86 91 94 97 98 100 101 V (KT) LAND 65 47 38 33 30 32 35 38 42 44 46 50 54 57 57 59 61 V (KT) LGEM 65 49 39 33 30 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 18 14 8 8 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 19 31 60 76 41 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 30.8 30.1 29.4 29.5 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 172 172 159 161 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 172 172 170 156 157 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 11 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 66 68 70 73 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 8 6 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 64 54 66 68 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 12 11 40 45 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -2 4 8 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 0 -90 -190 -167 -62 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.8 16.7 16.5 16.3 16.1 15.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 88.3 89.5 90.7 91.9 93.1 95.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 66 55 19 12 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 14. 15. 17. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 4. 5. 7. 7. 10. 14. 17. 19. 21. 26. 29. 32. 33. 35. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 16.8 88.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162020 NANA 09/03/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 12.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.63 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.23 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 3.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.76 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 221.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.71 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.65 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 4.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 29% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.9% 46.7% 30.7% 17.0% 12.5% 18.5% 22.4% 28.6% Logistic: 20.3% 59.4% 46.1% 25.1% 20.6% 31.4% 27.9% 46.7% Bayesian: 7.7% 41.1% 12.7% 1.2% 0.6% 18.8% 17.7% 74.1% Consensus: 15.6% 49.1% 29.8% 14.4% 11.3% 22.9% 22.7% 49.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162020 NANA 09/03/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162020 NANA 09/03/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 47 38 33 30 32 35 38 42 44 46 50 54 57 57 59 61 18HR AGO 65 64 55 50 47 49 52 55 59 61 63 67 71 74 74 76 78 12HR AGO 65 62 61 56 53 55 58 61 65 67 69 73 77 80 80 82 84 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 52 54 57 60 64 66 68 72 76 79 79 81 83 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT