* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NANA AL162020 09/03/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 58 59 60 65 69 74 78 81 84 88 91 94 94 96 98 V (KT) LAND 55 57 45 37 33 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 46 38 33 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 16 15 13 9 10 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 14 8 18 39 59 40 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 30.1 30.7 30.8 29.7 29.2 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 172 172 172 164 156 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 164 169 172 172 160 152 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -52.6 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 8 10 11 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 65 67 69 70 77 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 10 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 62 61 52 60 64 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 32 15 25 43 40 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 0 8 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 140 24 -82 -164 -220 -58 -52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.0 16.9 16.8 16.7 16.6 16.4 16.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.8 88.0 89.2 90.3 91.5 93.8 96.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 11 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 58 64 73 34 10 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 13. 15. 17. 19. 21. 23. 23. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 10. 14. 19. 23. 26. 29. 33. 36. 39. 39. 41. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.0 86.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162020 NANA 09/03/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.60 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.31 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.75 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 213.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.76 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 29.8% 15.4% 11.6% 10.5% 14.4% 19.7% 25.4% Logistic: 13.7% 39.7% 27.4% 14.1% 10.6% 22.0% 28.8% 42.7% Bayesian: 3.2% 19.4% 5.5% 0.5% 0.3% 12.8% 25.8% 82.0% Consensus: 8.3% 29.6% 16.1% 8.7% 7.2% 16.4% 24.7% 50.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162020 NANA 09/03/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162020 NANA 09/03/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 45 37 33 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 55 54 42 34 30 26 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 55 52 51 43 39 35 34 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 41 37 36 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT