* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NANA AL162020 09/02/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 56 57 62 66 72 76 79 82 86 89 93 93 95 97 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 44 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 53 44 36 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 13 15 14 9 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 -2 0 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 21 5 360 16 33 15 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.6 30.0 30.5 30.8 29.6 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 170 171 171 163 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 161 161 167 171 171 158 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 9 8 10 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 58 65 66 69 75 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 12 11 11 9 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 52 63 61 52 64 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 38 41 20 22 51 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 -3 -4 -3 -2 7 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 135 145 32 -65 -132 -168 -50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.1 17.0 16.9 16.7 16.6 16.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.2 86.6 87.9 89.0 90.0 92.2 94.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 10 10 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 67 58 64 73 38 7 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 22. 25. 27. 28. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 12. 16. 22. 26. 29. 32. 36. 39. 43. 43. 45. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 17.1 85.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162020 NANA 09/02/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.60 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 60.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.40 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.67 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 213.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.79 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 24.4% 14.9% 11.3% 10.6% 13.4% 26.5% 30.7% Logistic: 11.8% 33.6% 24.2% 16.6% 11.8% 24.4% 26.7% 44.6% Bayesian: 1.7% 10.9% 5.3% 0.4% 0.3% 5.2% 5.9% 71.9% Consensus: 6.9% 23.0% 14.8% 9.4% 7.5% 14.3% 19.7% 49.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162020 NANA 09/02/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162020 NANA 09/02/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 54 44 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 50 49 51 41 33 27 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 50 47 46 36 28 22 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 32 26 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT