* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NANA AL162020 09/02/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 55 58 62 68 71 74 77 79 80 83 87 91 92 94 95 V (KT) LAND 50 52 55 58 48 34 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 53 56 47 33 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 16 12 14 13 6 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 0 -1 1 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 13 16 7 1 15 56 41 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 29.5 29.6 30.0 30.6 29.8 29.2 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 162 163 170 172 166 154 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 172 161 160 165 172 162 147 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -52.6 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 9 8 11 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 54 58 64 67 70 76 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 10 11 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 35 48 60 57 56 59 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 30 39 44 29 38 34 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 1 0 -2 -3 6 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 154 135 152 43 -58 -222 -96 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.0 16.8 16.6 16.6 16.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.7 85.2 86.7 87.8 88.9 91.2 93.4 94.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 12 11 11 11 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 69 67 58 63 72 10 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 22. 24. 27. 27. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 18. 21. 24. 27. 29. 30. 33. 37. 41. 42. 44. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 17.1 83.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162020 NANA 09/02/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 6.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.58 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 65.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.43 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 270.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.66 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.79 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.6% 38.5% 20.6% 12.8% 12.2% 20.2% 29.3% 21.5% Logistic: 18.8% 33.6% 25.4% 20.3% 14.4% 28.2% 39.9% 43.0% Bayesian: 4.1% 33.1% 15.8% 1.3% 1.0% 12.9% 27.9% 66.7% Consensus: 10.5% 35.1% 20.6% 11.4% 9.2% 20.4% 32.4% 43.7% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162020 NANA 09/02/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162020 NANA 09/02/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 55 58 48 34 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 50 49 52 55 45 31 26 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 50 47 46 49 39 25 20 19 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 30 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT