* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NANA AL162020 09/01/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 54 59 63 72 77 82 82 82 82 84 88 92 95 98 100 V (KT) LAND 45 50 54 59 63 72 62 39 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 54 58 63 72 66 40 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 11 11 17 14 10 8 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 0 0 2 4 0 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 50 47 6 360 7 349 47 335 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 30.0 29.8 29.6 30.4 29.8 29.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 167 171 167 162 172 166 166 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 167 165 166 171 166 158 172 162 164 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 11 11 9 10 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 51 52 51 55 67 71 75 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 39 37 25 41 54 50 62 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 23 26 6 36 37 17 38 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 8 8 3 0 4 2 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 143 215 316 222 135 139 -43 -208 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 16.8 16.9 17.0 17.0 17.0 16.9 16.4 15.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 78.4 79.7 81.0 82.5 84.0 86.5 88.7 90.9 92.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 13 14 13 11 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 99 77 73 67 68 57 69 9 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 39.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 17. 20. 22. 25. 28. 31. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 11. 8. 4. 1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 14. 18. 27. 32. 37. 37. 37. 38. 39. 43. 47. 50. 53. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.7 78.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162020 NANA 09/01/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 11.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.59 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 76.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.51 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 314.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.61 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.84 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 4.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 35% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 49% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.2% 49.9% 32.7% 19.2% 14.1% 26.4% 35.2% 49.2% Logistic: 16.8% 27.9% 22.3% 16.3% 9.3% 25.4% 33.9% 46.2% Bayesian: 5.0% 55.1% 26.2% 2.0% 1.8% 22.8% 66.7% 61.0% Consensus: 14.3% 44.3% 27.0% 12.5% 8.4% 24.9% 45.2% 52.1% DTOPS: 4.0% 7.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162020 NANA 09/01/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162020 NANA 09/01/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 50 54 59 63 72 62 39 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 45 44 48 53 57 66 56 33 25 23 22 21 21 21 21 21 21 12HR AGO 45 42 41 46 50 59 49 26 18 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 39 48 38 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT