* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN AL162020 09/01/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 43 50 56 63 69 72 76 80 85 91 94 98 101 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 43 50 45 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 42 44 48 45 32 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 18 14 13 15 10 15 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 57 50 56 28 3 12 10 18 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.9 29.4 30.6 30.3 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 161 162 162 170 160 173 172 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 158 160 162 162 170 160 173 172 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 10 11 7 11 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 55 56 56 54 64 67 70 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 45 47 42 31 59 52 48 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 27 31 28 16 48 18 19 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 7 6 5 3 2 -2 8 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 194 206 276 271 172 96 -67 -156 -102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 76.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 14 15 15 15 15 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 141 114 65 56 54 58 74 6 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 7. 14. 19. 23. 26. 29. 33. 37. 39. 41. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 15. 21. 28. 34. 37. 41. 45. 50. 56. 59. 63. 66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.0 76.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162020 SIXTEEN 09/01/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.54 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 86.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.57 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 229.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.89 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 42% is 8.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.5% 27.3% 15.4% 11.4% 10.7% 12.4% 14.5% 41.6% Logistic: 12.3% 17.9% 12.2% 6.7% 3.9% 14.9% 20.2% 44.5% Bayesian: 2.7% 40.5% 15.7% 0.7% 0.9% 7.7% 22.9% 56.5% Consensus: 8.5% 28.6% 14.5% 6.3% 5.1% 11.7% 19.2% 47.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162020 SIXTEEN 09/01/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162020 SIXTEEN 09/01/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 41 43 50 45 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 40 47 42 30 26 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 42 37 25 21 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 34 29 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT