* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902020 07/20/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 44 51 56 58 61 62 61 62 60 58 56 56 55 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 44 51 56 58 61 62 61 62 60 58 56 56 55 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 40 46 50 51 50 47 44 41 37 34 31 28 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 7 5 4 4 4 3 1 3 5 5 4 8 12 13 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -3 -1 0 0 0 2 -2 -1 0 -1 -1 -3 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 42 44 52 46 6 341 307 246 263 223 253 198 250 236 271 275 287 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.4 28.1 28.2 28.0 26.7 26.5 25.8 25.6 26.0 25.8 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 153 149 148 148 150 147 148 146 132 130 123 121 126 124 130 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 68 64 66 67 68 71 74 72 70 65 62 59 56 49 46 44 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 9 8 6 5 2 850 MB ENV VOR 1 9 16 23 29 47 54 43 25 -4 -21 -27 -28 -37 -30 -43 -44 200 MB DIV 67 68 55 42 39 8 9 7 4 6 2 9 -6 -23 -20 -14 -33 700-850 TADV 3 4 3 2 4 2 3 -1 0 2 4 6 4 7 4 6 3 LAND (KM) 1408 1508 1608 1703 1802 2053 2276 2463 2346 2023 1694 1369 1051 715 396 236 488 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 15 15 16 17 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 27 32 26 16 12 11 12 12 14 14 2 1 0 0 0 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):215/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 29. 29. 30. 30. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 6. 4. 3. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 21. 26. 28. 31. 32. 31. 32. 30. 28. 26. 26. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.9 119.4 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902020 INVEST 07/20/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 7.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.72 6.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.45 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.19 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 131.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -5.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.61 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 25.6% 25.1% 17.6% 0.0% 21.7% 21.1% 16.8% Logistic: 3.0% 14.4% 13.1% 6.1% 3.8% 16.5% 16.1% 31.7% Bayesian: 0.5% 11.2% 3.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.9% 1.2% 0.1% Consensus: 5.2% 17.1% 13.7% 8.1% 1.3% 13.0% 12.8% 16.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% 6.0% 14.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902020 INVEST 07/20/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##