* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902020 07/20/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 40 51 59 66 72 74 78 78 78 76 72 67 64 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 40 51 59 66 72 74 78 78 78 76 72 67 64 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 34 39 45 49 53 59 63 63 59 52 45 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 10 10 9 9 3 6 4 2 3 1 3 1 6 11 19 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -5 -2 0 0 -1 -2 -2 1 2 0 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 23 46 58 73 89 25 31 351 52 60 76 314 188 251 251 280 275 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.8 28.6 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.1 28.2 27.7 27.2 26.7 25.9 25.6 25.7 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 153 151 147 149 149 150 146 147 143 138 133 124 121 123 125 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.2 -54.5 -54.3 -54.4 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 64 65 66 63 63 65 69 72 71 70 65 61 54 48 44 40 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 3 3 4 6 7 9 10 10 11 12 12 12 12 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -1 -2 0 9 27 38 54 45 25 -3 -26 -37 -37 -41 -25 -18 200 MB DIV 25 30 49 57 57 38 -6 5 -2 17 3 8 -6 1 -14 -12 -8 700-850 TADV 3 4 5 6 1 1 1 0 -3 -1 1 0 2 3 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1322 1409 1501 1603 1716 1973 2208 2417 2565 2432 2119 1783 1433 1084 744 435 208 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.4 14.0 13.5 12.9 11.6 10.7 10.3 10.6 11.4 12.6 13.9 15.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.0 120.0 120.9 121.8 122.7 124.8 127.0 129.3 131.4 133.7 136.3 139.1 142.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 11 12 12 10 12 13 14 16 16 15 15 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 22 23 24 19 13 11 14 16 12 13 14 5 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 33. 34. 35. 35. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 11. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. 6. 5. 3. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. 8. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 26. 34. 41. 47. 49. 53. 53. 53. 51. 47. 42. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.6 119.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902020 INVEST 07/20/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 7.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.50 4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.40 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -5.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.67 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.6% 21.6% 0.0% 0.0% 20.4% 20.5% 0.0% Logistic: 9.3% 32.5% 19.9% 10.9% 7.9% 24.2% 24.1% 49.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 12.7% 2.3% 0.7% 0.1% 4.3% 2.3% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 23.6% 14.6% 3.8% 2.7% 16.3% 15.7% 16.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 9.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902020 INVEST 07/20/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##