* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902020 04/25/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 26 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 26 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 30 28 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 11 15 22 32 39 40 37 26 27 25 31 29 37 35 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 1 1 3 -4 -4 -1 3 -2 0 -4 0 -10 -5 -12 SHEAR DIR 204 242 253 258 256 256 257 253 260 268 286 264 271 260 270 273 278 SST (C) 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.3 25.7 24.1 23.6 23.4 22.3 21.0 20.6 20.1 20.2 20.6 21.7 22.5 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 132 126 120 103 98 95 84 69 65 60 62 67 79 87 102 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -54.2 -54.5 -55.1 -55.0 -55.0 -55.2 -55.5 -55.3 -55.3 -55.1 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 57 55 54 53 51 49 48 42 37 31 31 28 31 29 27 26 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 9 8 6 6 4 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -42 -43 -43 -47 -27 -15 -19 -42 -57 -51 -65 -64 -46 -34 -9 22 200 MB DIV 3 -28 -35 -7 0 5 13 -10 -10 -21 -9 13 -27 -27 -17 -25 -28 700-850 TADV -1 -1 1 3 1 10 7 17 17 18 7 -3 -16 -23 -31 -28 -18 LAND (KM) 1172 1154 1139 1138 1159 1141 1176 1227 1253 1268 1239 1146 1023 895 791 648 596 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.4 15.0 15.5 16.0 17.2 18.1 19.1 19.9 20.7 21.6 22.4 22.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.8 116.3 116.9 117.5 118.3 119.7 121.1 122.5 123.8 124.8 125.2 124.7 123.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 7 5 4 6 7 10 11 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 12 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 13. 12. 9. 4. -0. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -9. -16. -22. -26. -28. -29. -30. -32. -37. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -14. -16. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -11. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -7. -15. -23. -33. -43. -53. -58. -62. -66. -69. -73. -79. -85. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.9 115.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902020 INVEST 04/25/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.55 2.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.35 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.10 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 194.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 -2.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.57 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.59 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 8.0% 7.7% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 2.8% 2.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902020 INVEST 04/25/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##