* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902020 04/25/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 23 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 23 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 21 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 7 7 10 10 19 26 33 37 32 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 3 1 0 1 5 -1 -4 -1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 155 163 197 232 246 266 261 261 255 286 299 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.2 25.2 23.9 24.1 23.9 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 140 138 135 132 124 114 102 104 102 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -54.1 -54.2 -54.7 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 56 57 56 57 53 52 49 42 38 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 4 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -31 -40 -41 -47 -56 -52 -36 -16 -12 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 60 44 15 -26 -38 -5 3 14 -19 -8 -34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -1 0 0 0 9 5 10 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1264 1250 1238 1224 1213 1214 1241 1329 1518 1711 1865 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 6 7 7 8 11 11 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 19 14 8 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 19. 21. 22. 23. 22. 21. 20. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -2. -8. -13. -18. -20. -20. -19. -20. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -8. -11. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -16. -23. -29. -36. -36. -36. -35. -34. -36. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.8 115.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902020 INVEST 04/25/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.63 4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.23 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 138.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -4.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.98 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.55 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.1% 16.2% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 10.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 3.6% 3.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 7.3% 6.5% 0.1% 0.1% 4.0% 3.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902020 INVEST 04/25/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##