* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902020 04/24/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 30 29 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 30 29 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 26 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 9 12 15 21 28 34 40 39 30 28 20 23 23 29 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 7 8 3 2 2 6 5 -3 -3 2 0 4 2 -4 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 180 163 188 212 231 260 265 256 258 270 270 286 283 265 262 267 276 SST (C) 28.5 28.0 27.6 27.2 26.9 25.8 24.4 23.4 23.3 23.3 22.4 21.2 20.7 20.6 20.7 21.2 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 144 139 135 132 120 106 95 94 94 85 71 65 64 66 71 77 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -54.4 -54.6 -55.2 -55.1 -55.7 -55.7 -55.9 -55.6 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 58 54 53 52 53 51 48 46 41 36 29 27 27 29 27 26 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 9 10 9 9 9 7 7 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -14 -26 -28 -21 -26 -28 -16 -20 -31 -55 -49 -55 -71 -70 -67 -57 200 MB DIV 97 54 40 15 -12 -3 -13 -2 8 -6 -17 3 12 7 -9 -17 -21 700-850 TADV -5 -4 0 0 1 2 1 8 11 14 18 19 8 0 -9 -12 -11 LAND (KM) 1242 1200 1183 1173 1176 1182 1186 1206 1256 1312 1345 1352 1307 1249 1174 1130 1097 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.4 13.9 14.4 14.8 15.7 16.6 17.3 18.0 18.7 19.3 20.2 21.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.8 115.4 116.0 116.6 117.2 118.3 119.6 120.7 122.0 123.2 124.4 125.4 125.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 5 4 3 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 35 23 12 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 15. 11. 6. 2. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. -4. -10. -17. -21. -23. -24. -23. -24. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -0. -1. -6. -12. -19. -28. -36. -42. -46. -48. -50. -54. -61. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.7 114.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902020 INVEST 04/24/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.64 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.48 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.37 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 188.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 -4.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.3% 23.0% 20.2% 13.5% 0.0% 14.1% 10.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 2.1% 2.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 8.4% 7.7% 4.5% 0.1% 4.7% 3.6% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902020 INVEST 04/24/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##