* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902020 04/24/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 34 36 37 36 32 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 33 34 36 37 36 32 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 32 29 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 6 6 7 15 23 28 34 41 34 32 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 7 10 5 0 1 4 2 -4 1 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 212 188 147 178 203 257 268 266 263 265 278 279 296 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.0 26.1 24.9 23.7 23.4 23.3 22.9 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 148 144 140 132 123 111 98 95 94 89 75 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.9 -54.2 -54.7 -54.7 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 62 61 58 57 58 55 51 51 49 43 37 29 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 9 7 7 6 4 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -8 -17 -30 -39 -40 -50 -39 -32 -28 -42 -50 -49 200 MB DIV 155 113 80 58 19 -14 2 4 12 -14 -9 -13 -17 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -3 0 0 2 0 5 5 13 9 17 8 LAND (KM) 1312 1316 1286 1269 1246 1205 1206 1193 1200 1237 1280 1281 1236 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.9 12.4 12.8 13.3 14.4 15.3 16.3 17.0 17.7 18.4 19.3 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 114.1 114.6 115.1 115.6 116.1 117.1 118.2 119.3 120.3 121.5 122.6 123.5 124.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 49 41 33 25 16 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 17. 19. 19. 18. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -0. -5. -11. -16. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 2. -5. -14. -25. -34. -40. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.5 114.1 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902020 INVEST 04/24/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.76 6.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.62 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.29 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 4.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 158.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.87 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.3% 40.5% 28.7% 21.7% 0.0% 21.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 27.7% 52.8% 60.4% 20.9% 6.8% 1.3% 0.0% 0.4% Bayesian: 36.4% 20.8% 13.2% 7.4% 0.1% 2.1% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 27.4% 38.1% 34.1% 16.7% 2.3% 8.2% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902020 INVEST 04/24/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##