* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902020 04/24/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 39 40 35 29 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 39 40 35 29 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 22 21 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 7 3 4 5 11 19 25 32 38 38 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 5 4 5 4 0 1 3 1 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 213 213 218 197 117 203 246 258 258 256 261 279 285 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.6 27.9 27.3 26.8 26.1 25.1 23.8 23.6 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 152 149 142 135 130 123 112 99 97 90 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -52.9 -53.4 -53.1 -53.6 -53.2 -53.8 -54.0 -54.5 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 68 66 64 62 61 58 57 53 52 50 44 40 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 5 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -5 -12 -13 -17 -37 -41 -53 -50 -36 -29 -36 -54 200 MB DIV 175 207 176 139 102 42 -33 0 4 11 -18 -8 -7 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -4 -2 0 2 0 6 3 11 10 15 LAND (KM) 1314 1343 1367 1380 1355 1304 1249 1221 1213 1202 1216 1244 1239 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.9 11.1 11.4 11.8 12.7 13.7 14.6 15.5 16.2 16.9 17.5 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 113.3 113.9 114.4 114.9 115.3 116.1 116.8 117.6 118.5 119.3 120.4 121.4 122.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 59 50 46 42 38 23 10 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 22. 25. 27. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -3. -8. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 15. 10. 4. -4. -13. -20. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.7 113.3 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902020 INVEST 04/24/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.63 5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 159.8 -33.0 to 156.2 1.00 7.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.43 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.38 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 45.7% 30.3% 0.0% 0.0% 34.9% 23.8% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 20.3% 24.2% 6.4% 1.2% 1.9% 0.2% 1.8% Bayesian: 0.3% 2.6% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 22.9% 18.5% 2.3% 0.4% 12.4% 8.2% 0.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902020 INVEST 04/24/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##