* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902020 04/23/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 43 54 59 57 49 39 29 20 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 43 54 59 57 49 39 29 20 DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 32 33 34 32 28 23 18 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 8 8 4 3 7 12 18 22 27 37 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 4 8 5 2 2 0 0 1 3 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 204 212 230 248 224 111 236 261 263 260 253 248 263 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.6 28.0 27.6 27.3 26.1 24.9 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 152 153 153 149 143 138 135 123 110 99 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -52.6 -53.1 -53.6 -52.7 -53.5 -53.1 -53.6 -53.5 -54.0 -54.0 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 2 1 700-500 MB RH 71 70 68 67 66 62 57 54 53 51 49 45 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -18 -23 -22 -28 -30 -44 -54 -52 -45 -33 -28 -37 200 MB DIV 110 122 166 202 179 113 66 -15 -3 -12 0 -4 14 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 -2 -2 -2 0 0 0 6 4 9 9 LAND (KM) 1224 1250 1267 1267 1269 1249 1228 1156 1110 1075 1090 1113 1111 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.5 10.8 11.7 12.6 13.6 14.5 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 111.0 111.6 112.0 112.4 112.8 113.5 114.2 114.9 115.7 116.6 117.5 118.6 119.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 54 60 63 70 71 65 46 30 13 7 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 60.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. -1. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 2. 2. -0. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 12. 18. 17. 10. 3. -2. -6. -9. -11. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 18. 29. 34. 32. 24. 14. 4. -5. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.0 111.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902020 INVEST 04/23/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 7.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.64 7.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 155.8 -33.0 to 156.2 1.00 9.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 63.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.59 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 4.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 86.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.48 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 4.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 62% is 9.6 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 67% is 11.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 53.7% 39.1% 0.0% 0.0% 62.5% 66.6% 0.0% Logistic: 8.1% 42.8% 35.1% 16.3% 2.7% 17.1% 4.0% 9.0% Bayesian: 10.2% 8.9% 8.8% 3.5% 0.1% 2.3% 4.3% 0.4% Consensus: 6.1% 35.2% 27.7% 6.6% 1.0% 27.3% 24.9% 3.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902020 INVEST 04/23/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##