* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NESTOR AL162019 10/19/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 40 38 37 32 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 37 33 30 29 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 37 32 30 28 30 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 39 37 36 42 42 50 58 62 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 7 4 4 7 -1 -2 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 302 296 292 296 291 287 291 300 329 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.3 27.6 27.0 23.4 26.2 26.4 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 145 136 128 97 117 118 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 138 142 133 124 115 87 101 100 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -53.4 -54.2 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 56 58 56 55 47 39 30 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 17 15 16 15 15 14 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 4 -20 -36 -5 -24 -39 -64 -61 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 47 38 16 6 -28 -39 -88 -69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 32 49 56 63 35 32 13 18 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 107 -81 -174 -108 -121 80 425 517 706 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.5 30.7 31.8 33.3 34.8 36.5 37.1 37.5 37.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.8 85.0 83.1 81.1 79.2 74.9 70.5 67.8 64.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 20 21 22 21 18 15 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 20 3 2 2 0 2 8 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 15 CX,CY: 13/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -13. -25. -38. -47. -56. -62. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -8. -13. -21. -32. -49. -58. -66. -70. -75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 29.5 86.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162019 NESTOR 10/19/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.92 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.60 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.52 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 92.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.08 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 200.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162019 NESTOR 10/19/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162019 NESTOR 10/19/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 37 33 30 29 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 40 37 36 36 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 38 37 37 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 34 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT