* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NESTOR AL162019 10/19/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 52 51 48 42 34 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 54 46 38 33 29 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 55 47 39 33 29 29 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 33 34 36 35 36 47 63 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 14 9 9 10 6 7 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 277 287 293 292 285 291 286 296 313 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.0 27.8 26.6 26.3 26.1 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 152 154 137 123 119 116 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 140 136 137 138 124 110 105 99 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -53.2 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 49 53 57 57 56 45 33 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 20 20 18 17 16 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -21 -12 0 -4 -2 -32 -35 -49 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 60 54 47 62 57 -2 -28 -50 -110 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 28 54 56 63 60 31 10 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 205 121 -40 -143 -139 -73 171 463 616 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.9 29.1 30.2 31.3 32.4 34.7 36.3 36.8 36.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.7 86.4 85.1 83.8 82.4 78.3 73.9 70.2 67.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 16 16 19 20 17 13 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 46 21 31 4 2 4 5 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 20 CX,CY: 14/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -13. -23. -33. -38. -43. -47. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -7. -13. -21. -31. -46. -52. -57. -59. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 27.9 87.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162019 NESTOR 10/19/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.47 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.40 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 70.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 253.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 5.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162019 NESTOR 10/19/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162019 NESTOR 10/19/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 54 46 38 33 29 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 46 38 33 29 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 43 38 34 33 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 40 36 35 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT