* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NESTOR AL162019 10/18/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 51 51 48 41 34 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 52 51 51 40 31 31 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 50 54 54 52 41 31 29 26 21 15 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 35 35 39 37 39 39 57 66 65 40 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 10 13 8 9 6 5 3 -4 -9 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 273 278 284 296 295 295 293 300 299 316 302 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.7 29.0 27.3 25.4 26.4 26.3 26.1 25.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 149 148 149 154 131 112 119 115 112 107 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 143 137 134 135 140 118 100 101 94 90 88 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -53.9 -54.6 -54.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 50 49 53 57 55 51 42 26 28 49 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 19 20 19 16 15 16 15 11 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -8 -25 -14 -3 -35 -14 -22 -22 -62 -19 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 58 59 56 37 54 8 -7 -45 -61 -110 10 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 27 33 44 51 49 48 43 23 -1 11 39 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 300 224 169 3 -85 -67 22 340 462 510 585 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.4 27.5 28.6 29.7 30.8 33.2 35.1 36.4 37.0 37.0 36.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 89.2 87.9 86.6 85.3 83.9 80.5 76.0 72.0 70.1 69.1 68.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 16 18 20 19 13 6 3 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 56 24 24 4 7 0 3 4 5 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 19 CX,CY: 16/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -12. -20. -32. -42. -48. -53. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -14. -20. -21. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. 1. -2. -9. -16. -24. -33. -48. -60. -64. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 26.4 89.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162019 NESTOR 10/18/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.29 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.54 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 61.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.39 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 248.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162019 NESTOR 10/18/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162019 NESTOR 10/18/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 51 51 40 31 31 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 48 48 37 28 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 35 26 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 29 20 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT